The Super El Niño

[00:00:00] Debkanya: Mics, camera, action. Welcome back to Takaro Kids. We are back after a long break. We took a nice long summer break, and we are back again, and we have a lot of different things that we wanted to talk about, but we've picked one topic for our return episode
[00:00:20] Kiran: Yep. And this one's an important one because it actually has to do with geography and climate science, and it's gonna affect all of us in the next year or two.
[00:00:30] Kiran: Somewhere under the Pacific Ocean, there is something that's happening which is gonna impact all of our lives, right? There, it's, it's... When you say Pacific Ocean, generally everyone thinks about a tsunami or, you know, a storm, thunderstorm, whatever it may be.
[00:00:48] Kiran: But it's actually something that's taking a lot longer to play out. This is fundamentally a warm water current which is actually kind of coming from below and creeping up to the surface. That's it
[00:01:07] Debkanya: Well, we jumped right into it in this episode, didn't we? Went right into it, and he's right. This is about something in the ocean that's been churning and warming up and taking time to come, but it is coming, and scientists are very, very worried about it, okay? but this phenomenon, it's called the El Niño, and what we're going to see now, is called the Super El Niño, which is expected to hit us very, very soon.
[00:01:35] Kiran: So the El Niño is not uncommon. It happens all the time. It is something that happens every single year. It is probably the dance between the ocean and, you know, wind patterns.
[00:01:48] Debkanya: Mm-hmm. Yeah
[00:01:49] Kiran: if you think about wind patterns and if you think about, you know, geography, uh, there is something that we learn in school called trade winds.
[00:01:56] Kiran: Do you remember what trade winds are, Debbie?
[00:01:58] Debkanya: Sort of, not exactly, but they're winds that blow, I think, from the east to the west. Is that correct?
[00:02:04] Kiran: Correct. Across the tropics. So not in the equators, not beyond the tropics, but across the tropics. Usually what these trade winds do is they actually push warm water, which sits around South America. They push it and they move it towards Indonesia, Australia, all of that. Now, what happens when warm water is there? It basically rises, it creates that sort of, um, you know, moisture in the air, and that's what causes monsoons and all of that, which is very, very important from an agriculture perspective, right?
[00:02:39] Kiran: Now think about it. Our Earth is a globe. So when you fold it over, there is a Western Pacific side which basically connects the Americas to Asia. That's where all of this is actually happening. So what you should probably do is, take out that map of yours or the globe of yours and look at where the Pacific is and what the Western Pacific is, because that's the belt around the tropics, which is now getting super, super, super warm.
[00:03:09] Debkanya: I would highly recommend that you sit with a map open to understand exactly how it works. In fact, you can look it up, Google it, see exactly, look up El Niño, see what, what's happening over there, why the ocean currents are moving in a certain direction during normal times, and what happens during El Niño times, right?
[00:03:25] Debkanya: Now, the El Niño is not something that is abnormal. This happens every few
[00:03:30] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:03:30] Debkanya: Uh, the meaning of El Niño. Now, El Niño is in Spanish, it means little boy. In some places, in fact, they say it is also little Christ because, you know, this is what
[00:03:39] Kiran: The Christ Child
[00:03:41] Debkanya: the Christ child, exactly.
[00:03:42] Debkanya: Th-
[00:03:43] Kiran: Yeah
[00:03:43] Debkanya: South American, uh, fishermen, named it that because they realized that every few years during Christmas, uh, these warm waters would come towards their, uh, towards their coast, towards the, you know, waters where they fish, and the fish would disappear because the water was warmer than usual, so it was not comfortable for the fish to be there anymore. So this, this,
[00:04:02] Kiran: Yep
[00:04:03] Debkanya: warm water would come in and that's why they called it the El Niño. Some El Niño, events are mild so, you know, it doesn't really affect things too much. This happens. But some El Niño events are really, really severe and that's what's happening this time. That's why it's called the super El Niño because the trade winds are
[00:04:23] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:04:23] Debkanya: particularly weak, right? These trade winds that usually go from east to
[00:04:27] Kiran: Correct. It's kind of like a fan almost, right? Think about it. If a fan, you put it against water, and that's a good experiment. When the fan blows, you'll see the water waves kind of moving in the direction as well. And when you turn off the fan, the waves go slower. So that's basically what's happening, right?
[00:04:42] Debkanya: Yeah, exactly. That's actually a fantastic analogy. The fan is on the lowest speed possible now, which is why
[00:04:47] Kiran: Yeah
[00:04:48] Debkanya: is not moving as much as it should, which means it's going to stay warmer. It's not going to cool down like it always does, and that is going to disrupt a whole lot of other things, other weather phenomenon, which is going to specifically affect certain parts more than others.
[00:05:03] Kiran: Which means suddenly that warm water that was required near Asia to create the monsoon, because warm water rises, it creates moisture in the atmosphere, that results in the monsoon.
[00:05:15] Kiran: Now, that warm water hasn't come all the way there. It stays within South American region. Suddenly, all that warm water is now creating moisture in that region, and you suddenly will start seeing floods happening in South America, which it's never-- it's not usual for floods to happen, torrential downpour over there.
[00:05:33] Kiran: Whereas in India and in the east, um, you know, in Asia, you'll see a lot less monsoon because there isn't that, that moisture in the atmosphere.
[00:05:42] Debkanya: is cooler. Yeah, it's cooler
[00:05:44] Kiran: Yeah
[00:05:44] Debkanya: be. In fact, now they're also saying that the water is gonna be warmer than ever before. somewhere above two to three degrees, uh, warmer than usual. Now remember, the last 11 years actually, scientists have been observing and, you know, they've been documenting, the last el- 11 years have been the hottest, okay?
[00:06:02] Debkanya: It's been just getting hotter and
[00:06:03] Kiran: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm
[00:06:05] Debkanya: to remember that this El Niño is happening during a time when anyway the weather is hotter than normal. India, for example, we've seen extremely high temperatures, 40, 50 degrees in some places. So anyway, it's really hot. So on top of that, when this kind of disruption happens, it makes it even worse.
[00:06:21] Kiran: Yeah, and, and I think this is where, you know, climate change and the El Niño kinda come together, right? Because El Niño is something that has to happen. It is something that happens. It's not because of climate change, it is something that happens. But when climate change kind of collides with the El-El Niño, suddenly you have a much bigger impact.
[00:06:42] Kiran: Why are temperatures rising everywhere? It's because of climate change. We're seeing places get hotter. Now, this El Niño does not bring the monsoon to India. That kind of makes India even hotter. Like the agricultural regions, the north, all of it will suddenly start getting extremely, extremely hot, and that is a real dangerous proposition for us in India.
[00:07:08] Kiran: So maybe let's kinda get into what will happen with the super El Niño in India, right, over the next year or two
[00:07:15] Debkanya: We've experienced this summer, which has been quite brutal. What, um, scientists are saying is that we are going to see a weaker than usual monsoon.
[00:07:24] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:07:24] Debkanya: Is an agricultural country. We grow a lot of our food. If the monsoons are going to be erratic, if the monsoons are not going to be as planned, it affects a lot of things like, you know, how do we Do we sow enough? Do we get to grow enough food? Do we get to harvest at the time that we are planning to harvest? So it disrupts this entire cycle of growing our food, and that's gonna affect people because we just don't know how the monsoons are going to be. It's gonna affect North and Central India the most.
[00:07:51] Debkanya: So again, take
[00:07:52] Kiran: Yep
[00:07:53] Debkanya: take a look at where, you know, most of our food is grown. The north is the Punjab. You have a lot of that, uh, you know, food that is grown over there in that region. Maharashtra, you know, certain parts of Central India. Those p- parts are going to see lesser than normal monsoon.
[00:08:08] Kiran: I mean, if you think about it, 60% of India is farmland, and about half of India's population is living in those rural areas where farming is the main source of income and the main job, right? So when mo-monsoon is good, everything is great, crops grow according to time. Um, you know, this period, June to September, is when the southwest monsoon comes in.
[00:08:32] Kiran: So think about southwest, if you're thinking about India, south and west. So this is basically coming in from Kerala, um, you know, from that region, that's where it's coming in, and the western coast of, uh, Karnataka. All of that is basically where the southwest monsoon is coming from. And that suddenly stops or is not as, um, complete as it usually is.
[00:08:55] Debkanya: Hmm
[00:08:56] Kiran: And you basically have all those people living in rural areas, people living in agricultural belt, facing this heat along with the crops. And so India's, um, meteorological department, um, has already basically said that, you know, we'll receive maybe 60 to 80% of a regular monsoon, which is actually a really, really bad sign.
[00:09:22] Kiran: And, uh, it's way below the average that we receive, they've estimated that, you know, if you look at states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, these are all gonna face, the biggest challenges from a heat perspective, right? And so even the El Niño basically affects different regions within India differently as well
[00:09:47] Debkanya: One thing I wanted to also, you know, point out, maybe you're already learning about this in school, in geography class. I remember we did. Um, are the different types of crops that we grow in India,
[00:09:57] Kiran: Yeah, yeah
[00:09:58] Debkanya: Kharif crop and the Rabi crop, right? The Kharif is what is, uh, sown during this time, June, July, during the-- before the monsoons, during the monsoons, so that the harvest happens, you know, maybe in October, November, if I'm not mistaken. And then there's the Rabi crop, which is your winter crops, right? So you plant things that will specifically grow in those conditions, in winter-like conditions in India, and then you harvest them later, right? So there's, these are the cycles. Kharif crops are usually crops like, you know, things that are staples.
[00:10:25] Debkanya: You're talking about rice, you're talking about maize, uh, you're talking about, you know, oilseeds, jowar, bajra, groundnut, cotton. Yeah,
[00:10:34] Kiran: Yeah
[00:10:34] Debkanya: a lot of important crops that In-India depends on. So if this gets affected, then automatically a lot of things get affected. Now, would say worry, because the good thing here is remember that we know about this coming, right?
[00:10:49] Debkanya: So it's not
[00:10:50] Kiran: Yep
[00:10:50] Debkanya: aware, and that's the best thing about science, and that's the best thing about the technology that we have right now. People are able to predict and plan for events like this, which is why we know this is coming, so there is a lot of stock that has been kept aside so that it doesn't affect us immediately.
[00:11:07] Debkanya: You know, so, you know, pl- farmers, for example, there are, there are always, uh, schemes and various methods through which we make sure that they are safe, their, their crop is safeguarded, they're given the right type of crops, they're given the right kind of support to keep growing their food, so they are not as affected.
[00:11:22] Debkanya: So that is possible today because
[00:11:25] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:11:25] Debkanya: what is coming and we can prepare.
[00:11:27] Kiran: You know, there will be an impact for sure if the Super El Niño actually does play out to the way that most scientists expect it to. There will be an effect. There will be rising prices of, uh, food in India. Um, you know, now with this whole combination of the Iran, uh, war as well, and anyway there being price increases because of supply issues, um, that'll continue into twen- uh, later 2026 and early 2027 as well.
[00:11:55] Kiran: So, scientists are expecting 2027, the start of 2027 and all the way till, you know, the end of 2027 to be very, very tough if the Super El Niño actually comes in. Which is something like you said we know about, so we are prepping for it. We should also kind of consider this when we're thinking about our planet and the system that all the various interconnected systems that need to work for it to really matter, right?
[00:12:22] Kiran: Which is very cool. Yeah. And,
[00:12:24] Debkanya: I agree
[00:12:25] Kiran: And thinking about, you know, something like this on International World Environment Day, June 5th, is even more important because we need to start kind of understanding and appreciating how geography works across the entire globe and how small changes can ma-make massive impact in different parts of the world.
[00:12:47] Debkanya: Absolutely. I mean, we are so interconnected in every single way. The climate, you're talking about people, people's lives, animals, all of
[00:12:55] Kiran: Yeah
[00:12:56] Debkanya: And what is also interesting about this story, Kiran, and, you know, is the fact that you have the El Niño, which is the little boy, and then you
[00:13:03] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:13:05] Debkanya: have the La Nina which is the Little Girl
[00:13:05] Kiran: Yep.
[00:13:06] Debkanya: And I
[00:13:06] Kiran: Yep
[00:13:07] Debkanya: love that, right? I mean, it's amazing how nature has always found a way to balance itself. La Niña usually follows the El Niño, and the opposite of El Niño happens, which is basically what happens is cooler than normal water, um, dominates the Pacific, which means you have cool water on the Paci- i-in the Pacific Ocean. It tends to bring more rainfall to India because the opposite is happening, right? So now we are
[00:13:30] Kiran: Yep
[00:13:30] Debkanya: less rainfall because of El Niño. More rainfall comes to India, and it usually tends to balance this whole thing out, and they're saying that this could happen somewhere in late twenty twenty-seven or twenty twenty-eight, where we could recover from the effects of the Super El Niño
[00:13:45] Kiran: Yeah. But the recovery will be slow because again, through the super El Niño, you would have depleted groundwater, you would have, you know, had a lot of crops which have failed. So it will take time to come back. But yes, nature always works in cycles, and so, um, it is just one of those parts. But I think El Niño is not the problem.
[00:14:06] Kiran: It is when El Niño combines with climate change, it becomes really a, a problem, right? Because the super El Niño was, happened also in the late 1800s last time, and where it had devastating effects globally, but it was very l- little number of people compared to how many there are today, and also less technology than what is there available today.
[00:14:28] Kiran: So it's a different world. We'll see how it goes. We'll keep you kind of posted on this. But from a geography perspective and a climate perspective, I think it's really important to understand trade winds. It's important to understand how currents in the ocean kind of flow, um, which basically gives India the weather it has, gives different parts of the world the weather it has.
[00:14:48] Kiran: And so how it all stays connected
[00:14:54] Debkanya: Again, I will s- I'll reiterate, it also helps us make sure that we have the right, processes in place, systems in place to protect us from these things that can come up, right? Uh, because we can predict, we can't be sitting on our hands and not doing something about it. So can we be- get better at cooling down our cities?
[00:15:13] Debkanya: Can we get better at water harvesting? Can we get
[00:15:16] Kiran: Mm-hmm.
[00:15:17] Debkanya: at giving our farmers, better seeds, better support, uh, so that they can grow their crops, you know, without too much getting disrupted? Can we plan
[00:15:26] Kiran: Yeah
[00:15:26] Debkanya: and make sure that, you know, we are prepared no matter what, I think those are, those are very, very interesting questions to ask, and you should.
[00:15:33] Debkanya: You should look into it a lot more. And I think the first step for us all who are listening to this is awareness. And
[00:15:39] Kiran: It is
[00:15:40] Debkanya: you can have these conversations with people.
[00:15:42] Kiran: In fact, go to our website, takarokids.com, because we have classroom, resources available to you now. So you can actually download these or you can actually just read it off a computer or someone's, uh, device and start these discussions which will connect it back to what you're actually learning in school.
[00:16:02] Kiran: So go in and check out these classroom resources as well because, uh, it makes for a very, very interesting conversation in school
[00:16:09] Debkanya: Yeah, do what Kiran says. Go and visit takarokids.com. There's another reason why you should visit takarokids.com, isn't there, Kiran?
[00:16:19] Kiran: Is there?
[00:16:21] Debkanya: Yes, it's there. Yes, it's there. The quiz question for this episode of Takaro Kids is where, and I hope you've been paying attention, where does the El Niño take place? Okay. Where does the El Niño take place? You can say planet Earth, but that is not the correct answer. The options I'm gonna give you are option one, the Sahara Desert, option two, the Pacific Ocean, option three, the Himalayas, or option four, Kiran has changed the option that I wanted to give, and he's made it the Atlantic Ocean. I think I've given away the answer too.
[00:17:03] Kiran: Yes, you have.
[00:17:05] Debkanya: wrong answers, yes. Hmm.
[00:17:06] Kiran: Correct. Yeah. So smart, Debbie. Gee. But as always visit our website and send in your answers. One lucky winner will get some amazing goodies, and, uh, we will let you know in the next episode who that is. In the meantime, also go get those classroom resources, have a conversation with your friends and with your educators and with your teachers, and, uh, talk about El Niño and what you could possibly do and how the entire ecosystem works.
[00:17:41] Kiran: Until next week
[00:17:42] Debkanya: It's time for us to say goodbye
[00:17:44] Kiran: Bye-bye